Polling Day 2011

Dear fellow citizens,

Today is a special day.
We will reflect on what were going on for the past 5 years, decide which box shall we mark a cross over and project our expectations for the next 5 years.

I have set a few benchmarks while considering the judgement.

1. Cost of taking public transport.
2. Presidential and Cabinet's pay.
3. Town councils' investments in structured products.
4. Cost of public housing for first time buyer.
5. Utility bills.
6. Taxes on possession and usage of private vehicle.

Please use your vote wisely.
May the force be with us.

A few curious points about Sembawang chief's words.

"To reach out to 140,000 voters, when they've never been here (Sembawang GRC), it's difficult. So we know they'll be just using rallies and of course they hope to have a debate with my team, then they're on national TV - straightaway, they reach out. So I can understand why they prefer this tactic."

~~ Khaw Boon Wan explained why a public debate with opposition party is unlikely to happen. 24-Apr-2011.

1. Isn't public debate a good opportunity to prove the credibility of the opposition, or rather the lack of it, once and for all?

Why the concern over the opposition reaching out to the voters?
The opposition only indulged in hifalutin talks and baseless accusations, don't they?
Can they strike a chord with the common voters?

As one deceased US President said, "You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

2. Will a debate undo one's ground work of over 6 years?

3. Could it be futile to engage in public debate as you believe the election as a forgone conclusion?


One question shot to mind when hearing some said the opposition is rarely seen on the ground during normal times: Does the opposition require police permit to walk the ground so to not infringe illegal gathering rule or whatever laws applies?

GE2011: If I vote for the opposition, the government will blacklist me.

We always hear stories of some people being dis-advantaged because they voted for opposition in an Election. But we never know who they exactly are.

While it may not be true, the rumour persists.

Understandably, the ruling party will not pull out all the stops to debunk this.

So here we go again.
Who got "condemned' at work in a government-linked organisation after voted for opposition?
Whose kid is denied entry to preferred school due to the parent's political choice?
Which couple has tried for years and never been successful in any new HDB flat ballot because each of them failed to vote for the ruling party? ...


Reference:
1. http://theonlinecitizen.com/2011/04/three-local-myths/
2. http://fbshare.me/AbFGA

Ask not what your country can do for you; Ask what you can do for your country.

Mah_comment_on_lower_land_cost_for_HDB

You can't handle the truth !

Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lt. Weinburg? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago, and you curse the marines. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know. That Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall. We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way, Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon, and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.

~~ Colonel Jessup in "A Few Good Men", 1992.

Netizens reacted in doves after hearing PM Lee spelt out people who supported the ruling party are favoured for national programme which are public funded, over those who didn't.

We could only say this: You cannot handle the truth.

One advantage about single party system of government is policies are drafted and implemented more efficiently without much opposition or debate. Hence the impact on people whether positive or negative will be felt quickly. How good the policies are relies heavily on how wise the group of people who drafted the policies are.

While in a multi-party system, policy implementation will take longer time as you are expected to debate and convince majority of parliarment to pass the policy. The policies have to withstand the acid test before the people can felt it.

You choose which one is better suited here.

Is goods and services tax (GST) a form of regressive tax?

I read from Lucky Tan's post that GST increase from 3% to 5% from year 2003 in Singapore is to top up the reduction in top marginal personal income tax rate and corporate income tax rate.

In 2007, GST is raised to 7% with an offset package for locals over 5 years to cushion the impact of the 2% GST raise. The package will cost SGD4 B in total.

According to Tony Tan's report, the gain in GST at 7% as of end 2009 is SGD4.9 B.
This seems to be sufficient to fund the offset package.

What will happen after the offset package lapse?
=========================

Elsewhere,

a) In Malaysia - "The GST would replace the existing taxes on sales and services and would not put pressure on prices, he said, adding that to ease the burden on consumers, staple foods such as rice, sugar, cooking oil and flour will be exempted.

The plan drew immediate criticism from opposition lawmakers who said it will cause living costs to spike."

Malaysia has yet to implement GST.

b) In Pakistan - "FBR (Federal Board of Revenue) was supposed to collected Rs 73 billion additional revenue through conversion of GST in to Value Added Tax and due to political opposition of VAT in the country FBR is unable to generate the same."

Pakistan has yet to implement the new RGST (reformed GST).


Reference:

1. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/1020728/1/.html
2. http://www.brecorder.com/component/news/single/623:news.html?id=1164412
   

Electricity tariff among the 4 little dragons of Asia.

Electricity tariff here as compared to Hong Kong, Seoul and Taipei.

1. Electricity tariff in major cities, as of Dec 2009:

Notes: Tariffs and exchange rates are as of December 2009.
Comparison based on annual residential customer consumption of 3,300 kWh

2. Electricity tariff in major cities, as of Nov 2010:

I think 2011 will be no much different as the rate of rise historically for past 5 years indicates.

3. Electricity tariff rises in major metropolitan cities (2005 – December 2009):

Note: Comparison based on annual residential customer consumption of 3,300 kWh.

Reference: Charts from CLP Power Hong Kong Limited website: http://www.clpgroup.com

A curious case of negligence.

"The prescribed legal limits for drink driving in Singapore is 80 milligrammes of alcohol per every 100 millilitres of blood or 35 microgrammes of alcohol per every 100 millilitres of breath. This is currently similar to the United Kingdom’s prescribed legal limit although they have the additional limit of 107 milligrams of alcohol per 100 millilitres of urine."

~~ Quote from www.lawnet.com.sg

成者为王,败者为寇

History is a myth that men agree to believe.

~~ Napoleon Bonaparte.

The scary part about reading History is one cannot seperate the half truths from the real truths.

A Barrage just dont hold water.

"To alleviate the risk of flooding in low lying areas of the city, the Marina Barrage has been in operation since 2008. It has served to remove tidal influence at the Stamford Canal outlet. During heavy rain, up to 9 gates and 6 pumps at the barrage will be operated to discharge excess storm-water to the sea. .."

~~ Response by Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Dr Yaacob Ibrahim in Parliament on Flash Floods. 19 Jul 2010.

I checked in Wiki, the common primary functions of a barrage are:
a) Increase the depth of a river (similar to a weir),
b) Maintain a separation between fresh and salt water,
c) Reduce the risk of tidal flooding up the river.

Secondary functions may include:

e) Tidal power generation,
f) Artificial whitewater leisure centres.

Curiously, I wondered: What is the difference between having the barrage at the mouth of Marina Channel as compared when without it in terms of flood control capability among low lying areas in the city?

Below are the stats for rainfall in Singapore recent years. We have seen heavier rainy days in 2003 and 2006.

Reference:
1. SingStat - Yearbook of Statistics Singapore 2009, Monthly Digest of Statistics Singapore Jul 2010.
2. Diary of a Singaporean Mind.

No one is above the law.

A Few Dictators Among Us.

Foreign Policy magazine recently compiled a list of worst living dictators (at this point of posting) and some of the brief CVs are quite interesting.

At number 14.
TEODORO OBIANG NGUEMA MBASOGO of Equatorial Guinea: Obiang and his family literally own the economy, having reportedly amassed a fortune exceeding $600 million while the masses are left in desperate poverty. Equatorial Guinea's extraordinary oil wealth puts its GDP per capita on par with many European states -- if only it were evenly shared. Instead, revenues remain a "state secret."

Years in power: 31

At number 17.
HUGO CHÁVEZ of Venezuela: The quack leader of the Bolivarian Revolution, Chávez promotes a doctrine of participatory democracy in which he is the sole participant, having jailed opposition leaders, extended term limits indefinitely, and closed independent media.

Years in power: 11

At number 20.
PAUL KAGAME of Rwanda: A liberator who saved the Tutsis from complete extermination in 1994, Kagame now practices the same ethnic apartheid he sought to end. His Rwandan Patriotic Front dominates all levers of power: the security forces, the civil service, the judiciary, banks, universities, and state-owned corporations. Those who challenge the president are accused of being a hatemonger or divisionist and arrested.

Years in power: 10

Reference: The Worst of the Worst - By George B.N. Ayittey | Foreign Policy

Wanted: Pilot(s) behind the Singapore Flier.

"I was shocked when I saw the flier. I think it is not appropriate for such content to be circulated this way. It's one thing seeing such things on the Internet, but another seeing the hard copy."

~~ Ms K.C. Ong, an administrator in her 40s who read the flier on Tuesday [06-Apr-2010], said she called and informed the PAP headquarters and alerted the media later.

Reference: Jacob 69er

This IHT article costs SGD160k

Davinder Singh, the lawyer acting for the leaders, told Reuters that the IHT's publisher, editor of global editions, and the article's author, Philip Bowring, also agreed to pay damages of S$60,000 to Lee Hsien Loong, and S$50,000 each to Goh Chok Tong and Lee Kuan Yew, as well as pay their legal costs.

~~~ Reuters, 24 Mar 2010.

All in the Family

By PHILIP BOWRING

HONG KONG — Are political dynasties good or bad?

Election time in the Philippines is a regular reminder of the roles that feudal instincts and the family name play in that nation's politics. Benigno Aquino, son of the late President Corazon Aquino, is the front runner to succeed President Gloria Arroyo, daughter of Diosdado Macapagal, a president in the 1960s.

Senate and Congressional contests will see family names of other former presidents and those long prominent in provincial politics and land-owning.

But the Philippines is not unique. Dynastic politics thrives across Asia to an extent found in no other region apart from the Arabian peninsula monarchies.

The list of Asian countries with governments headed by the offspring or spouses of former leaders is striking: Pakistan has Prime Minister Asif Ali Zardari, widower of Benazir Bhutto, herself the daughter of the executed former leader Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Bangladesh has Sheikh Hasina, daughter of the murdered first prime minister, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman . In Malaysia, Prime Minister Najib Razak is the son of the second prime minister, Abdul Razak. Singapore's Lee Hsien Loong is Lee Kuan Yew's son. In North Korea, Kim Il-sung's son Kim Jong-il commands party, army and country and waiting in the wings is his son Kim Jong-un.

In India, the widow Sonia Gandhi is the power behind the technocrat prime minister, Manmohan Singh, and her son Rahul is showing political promise and being groomed in the hope of leading the Congress party and eventually filling the post of prime minister, first occupied by his great grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru.

In Japan, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is the scion of a Kennedy-like political dynasty: His father was a foreign minister, and his grandfather was a prime minister.

Indonesia's last president, Megawati Sukarnoputri, is the daughter of its first, and family ties could well play in the next presidential election when the incumbent, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, must retire. In Myanmar, the durability of the opposition to the military owes much to the name of Aung San Suu Kyi's independence-hero father as well as to her stoicism.

Thailand lacks obvious political dynasties but that is likely because there is already a monarch. South Korea's rough and tumble democracy would seem to leave little scope for dynasties but even there, the political career of Park Chung Hee's daughter, Park Geun Hye, has benefited much from her father's reputation.

With the exception of North Korea, Asian dynasties are a phenomenon of countries that are more or less democratic.

In China, family connections help immensely but the party is still a relatively meritocratic hierarchy. Vietnam is similar. In the Philippines, it is easy to blame dynastic tendencies for the nation's stark economic failures. But its problems go much deeper into the social structure and the way the political system entrenches a selfish elite. It is a symptom not the cause of the malaise.

In India, the Gandhi name has been an important element in ensuring that Congress remains a major national force at a time when the growth of regional, caste and language based parties have added to the problems of governing such a diverse country. In Bangladesh, years of fierce rivalry between Sheikh Hasina, daughter of one murdered president and widow of another, have been a debilitating factor in democratic politics. But their parties needed their family names to provide cohesion and without them there could have been much more overt military intervention. Ms. Megawati was a poor leader but just by being there helped the consolidation of the post-Suharto democracy.

Dynasties can be stultifying too. In Malaysia, the ruling party was once a grassroots organization where upstarts like former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad could flourish but over time it has become a self-perpetuating patronage machine. Too many of the key players are the offspring or relatives of former leaders.

There are more fundamental problems, too. Most current Asian dynasties trace themselves to the post-1945 political transformation. In that sense they have become a crutch, reflecting a failure to devise systems for the transfer of power to new names, faces and ideas.

Dynasties are a poor commentary on the depth of democracy in their countries. Without parties with a coherent organization and a set of ideas, politics becomes about personalities alone and name recognition more important than competence. Parties run by the elite offspring of past heroes easily degenerate into self-serving patronage systems.

So dynastic leadership in Asia's quasi-democracies can provide a focus for nations, a glue for parties, an identity substitute in countries that used to be run by kings and sultans. But it is more a symptom of underlying problems than an example to be followed.

Sometime you gain, sometime you lose

Singapore budget for FY2009: SGD 43.44b.
As of Sep 2008, GIC managed assets: estimate SGD225b (well over USD100b).
As of 31 mar 2008, Temasek Holdings net portfolio value: SGD185b.

If we assume total asset value is SGD410b.
Then in the last financial year, Temasek lost more than SGD40b can represent almost one year of national expenditure or 10% of total asset.

Legally correctness

"We have to act because they are alleging corruption... If we do not act, and the lies and defamation are repeated throughout and in election rallies and spread around, I think the government's reputation goes down. And its standing must go down and it must lose its moral authority to govern, because these statements have been made and you've not reacted and that means there must be some truth in it,"

~~ Lee Hsieng Loong, Prime Minister, 22 April 2006.

NOTE: Look for pictures of bronze heads in Google search here.

Taiwan's MRT and us.

"There are only two persons who pay when it comes to public transport fares. One, I use — I pay. Or two, I use — you help me subsidise my ride. What happens when you subsidise my rides? That means the taxpayers are now paying. ..The money still must come from somewhere, right? It is about a 1.5 percentage point increase of your GST. So, now it is 7%. You want it to be free, do you want the GST to go up to 8.5% to run a completely free bus and train system?"


~~ Raymond Lim, Transport Minister, at a dialogue session with MacPherson residents, 21 Dec 2008.

Here is an article titled "Why Taipei’s MRT trumps Singapore’s" appeared in The Edge Singapore on 22 Dec 2008, written by Sunita Sue Leng.
Sunita previously an associate editor at The Edge Singapore, is now based in Taipei and writes on Greater China issues.




TAIPEI’S CITY Hall is so proud of its mass rapid transit (MRT) system that it runs a competition every year, asking people to send in poems about the MRT. I can see why. The MRT is clean and comfortable (in addition to chewing gum, the nasty habit of betel chewing nut has been banned). People queue up in a civilised fashion before boarding trains. And, when the doors open, they don’t barge in before passengers can exit.

Signs and announcements are in Chinese and English and all carriages have electronic displays showing which station is coming up next. Every carriage has special seats for old folks, pregnant women or people with disabilities. I’ve never seen fit, young people pretending to be asleep in these seats.

However, the best part about Taipei’s MRT is its frequency. According to Taipei Rapid Transit Corp (TRTC), the company that runs the system, trains arrive at two to four-minute intervals at peak hours. Off-peak, it is four to seven minutes.

In reality, it is much more frequent. I know because I’ve timed it. At peak hours, trains come as often as every minute. As for off-peak hours? Well, I’ve never had to wait more than three or four minutes. As a result, even during the morning rush hour, the trains are never as packed as they are in Singapore.

TRTC has won praise not just locally but internationally. It has been ranked No 1 for reliability for four straight years (2004 to 2007), according to the Nova/CoMET International Railway Benchmarking Group (of which Singapore’s SMRT Corp is also part).

All this got me wondering just how TRTC is able to deliver such a world-class MRT service. Perhaps, it doesn’t have to transport as many people as in the crowded Lion City? Perhaps, it’s government-owned and isn’t under pressure to make as much money as possible and can run more trains?

So, I pulled up some numbers (see table). And the broad conclusion is that Taipei proves it is possible to offer a high-quality, high-frequency and affordable MRT service without losing money. It also suggests that certain services, such as public transport, tend to function optimally as natural monopolies and ought not to be owned by companies that seek to maximise profits.

Let’s look first at the one common element between the two: the cost of taking a train. Average ticket prices in Singapore and Taipei are about $1. This is pretty low by international standards, as anyone who has had the misfortune to take the London Underground knows.

Singapore and Taipei are also pretty dense cities, but the latter packs more folks (5.5 million of them) into a smaller area (272 sq km). In comparison, Singapore is home to 4.6 million residents spread over some 692 sq km.

As such, in terms of coverage, Singapore’s network of five MRT lines is more extensive, totalling 109.4km, versus TRTC’s 74.4km network. However, TRTC has more stations on its smaller network, which means less distance between stations and greater convenience for commuters.

Just how many people take the MRT each day? In 2007, Singapore’s MRT moved an average of 1.56 million people a day. That’s just over a third more than what TRTC transported last year. So yes, TRTC’s network is smaller and it moves fewer people, which is one reason it feels less crowded.

However, what is illuminating is the difference in frequency. Last year, TRTC made an average of 2,171 train runs a day. SMRT clocked in at just over 1,000 a day for its fiscal year ended March 2008. This is not strictly an apples with apples comparison. SMRT’s system is older, has heavier loads and travels further than TRTC’s — factors which play a role in how often trains can be run. The comparison also doesn’t include data from SBS Transit, which runs the North- East Line. But, as SMRT accounts for more than four fifths of total MRT ridership, it is fairly representative of the whole picture.

Since February this year, SMRT has added about 900 extra train trips each week. According to the company, on average, its train frequency during peak hours is between two and five minutes. During off-peak hours, it is now between 3.5 and seven minutes. Given the existing signalling system and infrastructure, its average peak-hour frequency puts it among the top 20% of the world’s major metro operators, SMRT adds.

Still, it’s safe to assume that its bumped-up frequency continues to lag TRTC’s. And this, to an extent, is reflected in SMRT’s bottomline, which is much heftier than TRTC’s. In FY2008, SMRT’s rail operations saw revenue of $436.9 million. Earnings before interest and tax was $129.3 million. In comparison, TRTC saw approximately $415 million in fare revenue in 2007 and just $41.3 million in pre-tax profit.

TRTC is 73.75% owned by the Taipei City Government. The Ministry of Transportation and Communications owns a further 17.14% while the Taipei County Government owns 8.75%. Clearly, public-listed SMRT’s returns on its rail operations are far better for its shareholders than TRTC’s. However, TRTC — which has been profitable every year except its first two — is better for its commuters, who have been inspired to pen a poem or two in praise of their well-regarded metro.

COI report on Mas Selamat's escape.

“Never ascribe to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence”

~ Napoleon Bonaparte.


Its indeed a farce.

Why the opposition did not fare well in the parliament session on 21-Apr-2008?

The speaker may have the questions that is going to be asked beforehand.

CPF and Longevity Insurance

"Our families are getting smaller. We are working out support systems to help families raise their children. Ageing is a growing issue, those over 65 is increasing.

We have to have more of the over 60’s at work. The CPF drawdown age or retirement age will have to move up to life expectancy minus 20 years so that CPF need last for only 20 years. Legal age for retirement will have to go up from 62 to 65 and to 67. Eventually all those healthy and able to work, should be able to work regardless of age."

~~ Lee Kuan Yew, at the Tanjong Pagar 42nd National day celebration Dinner, 17 Aug 2007, 8.15 pm.

According to fellow blogger Goh Meng Seng, one motivation to defer the people from drawing out their saving funds from CPF is the increasing pressure of payout as more and more people reaching their draw-down eligibility age from 10 years time.

Let's check some statistic figures.

Here is the distribution of Singapore residents population by age group from the Singapore Department of Statistics :




We have a snapshot of similar data from the CPF site:



It seem to make sense but it would be exaggerating to expect similar scene below at the CPF buildings island wide:

Recent talk of the town about longevity insurance, which was previously called annuity, was hotly debated in the Parliament.

The SingaporeDaily did a good aggregator job and gave us a glimpse of what goes round in the House with those YouTube videos.

Came across a comment from Rock^Star at SGForum which prompted me to look up some statistics to support their argument.

Cue population prospect from UN Population division. This is the projection of life expectancy at birth during different period of time.

Singapore
Life expectancy at birth by sex (years)
Medium variant
1950-2050

Period	Both sexes combined	Male	Female
1950-1955	60.4	58.8	62.1
1955-1960	63.2	61.5	64.9
1960-1965	65.8	64.1	67.6
1965-1970	67.9	66.0	70.0
1970-1975	69.5	67.4	71.8
1975-1980	70.8	68.6	73.1
1980-1985	71.8	69.2	74.6
1985-1990	73.6	71.1	76.2
1990-1995	75.8	73.9	78.3
1995-2000	77.2	75.1	79.3
2000-2005	78.8	76.8	80.8
2005-2010	80.0	78.0	81.9
2010-2015	80.6	78.6	82.6
2015-2020	81.2	79.2	83.2
2020-2025	81.8	79.8	83.8
2025-2030	82.4	80.4	84.4
2030-2035	83.0	80.9	85.0
2035-2040	83.5	81.5	85.6
2040-2045	84.1	82.0	86.1
2045-2050	84.6	82.6	86.7

This is how I interpret the table: if you are born around the time 1950 to 1955, your life expectancy is 58.5 for male and 62.1 for female.

Similarly if you are the same age with our young nation, your life expectancy is 66 for male and 70 for female. Hence most of your peers will live till around the life expectancy age. While you may outlive them, if you are consider lucky/unlucky.

There is one flaw in the projection. That is the decreasing of mortality rate due to better medical care or healthier living through the years.

Nevertheless, our leaders liked to plan ahead. Hiking GST (medicine to help the poor and fund Workfare, infrastructure costs pertaining to an ageing population) while the economy is good; And proposing annuity payout beginning from age 85 is another good example.

While an ex Chief of an local insurance firm has proposed a more acceptable plan which may worth a look by the government.

Finally, it is interesting to note that NMP Siew Kum Hong's arguments on annuity proposal rang more sense than majority during Parliament.

Perhaps our expectation is a tad higher since the annoucement of civil service pay raise. And we hope FreeMan's perception is further from the truth.

We do not need sweet talk and we believe we can handle the plain truth.

Potemkin Village

"..You have one man, one vote, and it's not working in the Philippines, because you can't get rid of a president who is corrupt, because he's had more than one half of the senators unwilling to impeach him, despite all the evidence. And even in jail, he's got supporters outside. You need a certain standard of literacy, moral and ethical values, to be able to run a one man, one vote system."

~~ Lee Kuan Yew, during an interview with PBS.

Our country is not invited to the Community of Democracies Ministerial in Bamako on mid November 2007 as reported by Singabloodypore

Despite our country's affluence and efficiency, we are still considered not democratic enough by the western world.

Maybe they do not know about the free press being widely circulated over here, the likes of 我报 and Today.

So how does the international community see our prosperous, democratic society?
To get some insight, maybe we have to read some of the reports from them:

1. International Advisory Committee country report
2. Freedom house country report
3. Amnesty International news